So we see the potential for the “R” word to wash up on our
shores having washed over the States…well true? Or just rumours?
Rumours and Recession seem to go hand in hand or rather glass in glass
in the bars at the moment. One moment we are bottom buying (pardon the
expression, no lewd meaning meant) as we are told that banks and
financial companies are over-sold and they now represent good
value..and personally I have to agree. You have a market scared out of
its wits..with job losses starting, people are competing more than ever
to turn profit…and so the gossip starts.
Now all your senses
will scream at you to ignore the bulk of the emails, press, telephone
conversations, bar talk, tube talk etc…seek sense…..but…and it’s a big
but…
Your bank is letting people go. Potentially a lot of people.
Now
more than ever you seek the grail, lets look at the figures…Div Cover,
p/e ratio..rsi….etc…what to do. Balls, we either join the herd and
short sell the market or…we go out grab our stake and look to make the
big trade, the magic trade…..the miracle turn.
You push the
execute and go long…I’m buying a raft of banking sector stocks…I top it
off with a futures bet on the underlying index…I’m in on the volatility
as well…
..and then I’m off to the cloakroom to look in the
mirror in a kind of Rogue Trader movie sequence, me playing Ewan
McGregor………then off to Benjy’s for a salami sandwich.
I’m standing in the queue ignoring the bullshit being spouted…but it seeps in…like a virus..or blood in water…I’m sweating…
“What you want?”…..”What you want?......Oi!”
“hmmmm?...erm salami, salad, mayo, onion on rye”
I collect and leave.
Now I’m thinking what did I put on per point?.....Nerves and uncertainty team up in their favourite double act….I need a pee.
I
get it together and collect my mind..and go back to my desk, the floor
is in uproar, I flick a glance at the tv screen.. the news is panning
the front of a UK Clearing bank with a newscaster standing outside
looking grim…..shit! “Turn it up!! Turn it up!!!...
I look
across at the massive streaming prices screen… FTSE down
248.3…….Banking through the floor…….Bank of England stepping in to prop
up the system….this is bad, very bad…..I look at my four screens..eyes
not focusing…Currencies off….Sovereign Wealth funds sniffing round..our
Chancellor talking off autocue cards...
Two hours later my
stocks have lost 20%...the screen is a dartboard of red… paper
aeroplanes are flying across the floor as traders relax back….and then
pick up their jackets and head off for beers…
Me? Well, I slowly pick my head up from my desk…..”Oi! Carl you coming??”
“What???”
“You
coming fella?.....jesus man I don’t know how you did it sleeping
through a day like that!! Still you made loads on your long bets, well
with a bull market like this the banks are going through the roof!!”
“Huh?”
“Yeah
I’m telling you mate the whole sector is flying…since they invented
these mortgage backed derivatives we are raking it in!! and the great
thing is its here to stay fella! It would take a Global crisis to stop
this jugonaut…”
……dreams never come true. Right?
I
pick up my jacket…switch off the bank of screens and turn to leave. As
I walk between the aisles of desks and screens the large wall mounted
plasma screen behind me flicks up to a reporter standing outside a Wall
Street bank and the subtitles flick up….”House price falls growing..”
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